INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY AND SOCIETAL ASSESSMENTS

Bahar Rumelili, Koç University

One significant result of the ANXINT project[1] is that international uncertainty affects people situated in different national contexts differently. People in different national contexts have varying assessments regarding the likelihood of negative developments materializing in the future. They also judge possible negative developments materializing in the future as distressing and disruptive of their way of life to different degrees. This suggests that the effects of international uncertainty on individuals are mediated by the societal context. While the two national contexts compared in the ANXINT project suggest that the levels of uncertainty and threat collectively experienced at the societal level affect individuals’ reactions to international uncertainty, further research is necessary to specify the factors.

Below is a summary of the experimental study, which generated this result.

In Canada, an experiment with 431 full-time psychology (147) and political science (284) students has been conducted at University of British Columbia, Vancouver, during February-April 2018. 415 students completed the study.  In terms of demographic characteristics, 262 students were Canadian-born (out of the 395 who answered the question) and 267 indicated English as either their only or their first language (out of 396 who answered the question). 271 students indicated their gender as female, and 142 as male, while 2 preferred not to respond. On a scale of liberalism (1) to conservatism (10), 79% indicated their political stance within the range of 1-5, indicating a predominantly liberal subject pool.

In Turkey, an experiment with 453 full-time business and international relations students has been conducted at Koç University, Istanbul, during February-April 2019. 431 students completed the study. In terms of demographic characteristics, 409 students were born in Turkey and 420 indicated Turkish as their first language. 287 students indicated their gender as female, and 132 as male, while 9 preferred not to respond. On a scale of liberalism (1) to conservatism (10), 81% indicated their political stance within the range of 1-5, indicating a predominantly liberal subject pool.

Participants in the experimental groups in both countries were asked to assess the likelihood of a set of threatening scenarios materializing in the next 25 years. In line with the theoretical assumptions of the project, regarding the association of anxiety with uncertainty and unknowability, participants were asked to assess the likelihood of negative developments rather than being directly exposed to the negative developments themselves. It was assumed that the cognitive exercise of assessing likelihood is going to make the participants exposed to threatening possibilities and the impossibility of ruling out certain threatening possibilities as simply impossible, and thereby elicit anxiety rather than fear. The set of negative scenarios that were used in the Canadian and Turkish experiments are listed in Table 1. As can be seen, while some scenarios were common, others were selected to represent issues relevant to the specificities of the Canadian and Turkish international political contexts.

 

Table 1: Anxiety Priming Scenarios

 

Assess the likelihood of the following developments occurring within the next 25 years. How likely is it that…
Canada	Turkey
Someone in your family will be killed in a terrorist attack in Canada.	Someone in your family will be killed in a terrorist attack in Turkey.
A deadly global epidemic will spread to Canada.	A deadly global epidemic will spread to Turkey.
The United States will withdraw from the membership of the United Nations.	Army will seize the governance by a coup d’état in Turkey.
Nuclear weapons will be used in a conflict.	Nuclear weapons will be used in a conflict
Canada will enter into a war with Russia over the Arctic.	USA will implement sanctions to Turkey, similar to Iran.
There will be a global financial crisis which will lead to the bankruptcy of a major Canadian bank	There will be a global financial crisis which will lead to the bankruptcy of a major Turkish bank.
The Free Trade Agreement between US, Canada, and Mexico will be scrapped (10)	A curfew will be imposed in some of Istanbul’s areas due to insurrections.
Foreign states will mount a major cyber attack and influence results of Canadian federal elections (11)	Foreign states will mount a major cyber attack to Turkey.
	Some European countries will stop giving visas to Turkish visitors.
	An independent state will be formed in a part of Turkish territory.

 

 

In order to prime with assurance, participants were similarly asked to assess the likelihood of the continuity of a set of positive trends and neutral scenarios in the next 25 years. Rather than developments indicating positive change, the assurance scenarios emphasized continuity because again in line with the theoretical assumptions of the project, positive change can also be anxiety inducing, and generating such an effect would not have been desirable. Instead of subjecting the control group to no priming, this study chose to implement assurance priming in order to follow established experimental design practices in Terror Management Theory and Meaning Maintenance Model. The set of trends of continuity and neutral scenarios, which were used in the Canadian and Turkish experiments are listed in Table 2. As can be seen, while some scenarios were common, others were selected to represent issues relevant to the specificities of the Canadian and Turkish international political contexts.

 

Table 2: Assurance Priming Scenarios

 

Assess the likelihood of the following developments occurring within the next 25 years. How likely is it that…
Canada	Turkey
The average life expectancy in Canada will increase by 3 years.	The average life expectancy in Turkey will increase by 3 years.
The Canadian music landscape will change as more independent labels become popular.	In terms of national income, Turkey will remain among the top 20 countries in the world.
Global efforts will continue to reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty in the world.	Digital economy will spur Turkish employment.
The majority of nations in the world will be governed by free democratic regimes.	Turkish army will further get stronger and remain among the top armies in the world.
The United Nations will remain as the universal international organization that guarantees international security.	Some European countries will lift the obligation to obtain a visa for Turkey.
In terms of average national income, Canada will remain among the top 25 countries in the world.	The majority of nations in the world will be governed by free democratic regimes
Digital economy will spur Canadian employment	Women’s influence in politics and labour force participation will increase.
The rise in global temperatures will be contained within a safe 2 degrees Celsius	The rise in global temperatures will be contained within a safe 2 degrees Celsius.
	Turkey’s foreign-source dependency on energy will decrease.
	Education obtained in Turkey will provide job opportunities abroad.
	The average life expectancy in Turkey will increase by 3 years.
	In terms of average national income, Turkey will remain among the top 20 countries in the world.

 

Each participant was asked to indicate the possibility of anxiety and assurance scenarios materializing in the next 25 years on a 5 point scale ranging from highly unlikely to highly likely. Tables 3 and 4 indicate the mean likelihood scores which various anxiety and assurance scenarios received in Canada and Turkey.

 

Table 3: The Assessed Likelihoods of Anxiety Scenarios in Canada and Turkey

 

Canada		Turkey
Scenario	Average Likelihood (1-5)	Scenario	Average Likelihood (1-5)
Someone in your family will be killed in a terrorist attack in Canada.	1,74	Someone in your family will be killed in a terrorist attack in Turkey.	2,64
A deadly global epidemic will spread to Canada.	2,34	A deadly global epidemic will spread to Turkey.	2,59
The United States will withdraw from the membership of the United Nations.	2,71	Army will seize the governance by a coup d’état in Turkey.	2,87
Nuclear weapons will be used in a conflict.	3,08	Nuclear weapons will be used in a conflict	3,09
Canada will enter into a war with Russia over the Arctic.	2,11	USA will implement sanctions to Turkey, similar to Iran.	3,35
There will be a global financial crisis which will lead to the bankruptcy of a major Canadian bank	3	There will be a global financial crisis which will lead to the bankruptcy of a major Turkish bank.	4,13
The Free Trade Agreement between US, Canada, and Mexico will be scrapped (10)	3,34	A curfew will be imposed in some of Istanbul’s areas due to insurrections.	3,23
Foreign states will mount a major cyber attack and influence results of Canadian federal elections (11)	2,69	Foreign states will mount a major cyber attack to Turkey.	3,37
		Some European countries will stop giving visas to Turkish visitors.	3,83
		An independent state will be formed in a part of Turkish territory.	2,42
Mean	2,62625	Mean	3,152

 

Table 4: The Assessed Likelihoods of Assurance Scenarios in Canada and Turkey

 

 

Canada		Turkey
Scenario	Average Likelihood (1-5)	Scenario	Average Likelihood (1-5)
The average life expectancy in Canada will increase by 3 years.	3,85	The average life expectancy in Turkey will increase by 3 years.	3,22
The Canadian music landscape will change as more independent labels become popular.	3,56	In terms of national income, Turkey will remain among the top 20 countries in the world.	2,58
Global efforts will continue to reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty in the world.	3,62	Digital economy will spur Turkish employment.	2,46
The majority of nations in the world will be governed by free democratic regimes.	2,95	Turkish army will further get stronger and remain among the top armies in the world.	2,78
The United Nations will remain as the universal international organization that guarantees international security.	3,76	Some European countries will lift the obligation to obtain a visa for Turkey.	2,19
In terms of average national income, Canada will remain among the top 25 countries in the world.	4,18	The majority of nations in the world will be governed by free democratic regimes	2,65
Digital economy will spur Canadian employment	3,76	Women’s influence in politics and labour force participation will increase.	3,41
The rise in global temperatures will be contained within a safe 2 degrees Celsius	2,44	The rise in global temperatures will be contained within a safe 2 degrees Celsius.	2,15
		Turkey’s foreign-source dependency on energy will decrease.	1,91
		Education obtained in Turkey will provide job opportunities abroad.	2,33
		The average life expectancy in Turkey will increase by 3 years.	3,22
		In terms of average national income, Turkey will remain among the top 20 countries in the world.	2,58
Mean	3,515	Mean	2,568

 

 

As Tables 3 and 4 indicate, the Canadian participants assessed the anxiety scenarios to be much less likely than assurance scenarios, whereas the Turkish participants assessed the assurance scenarios to be less likely than anxiety scenarios. Moreover, the mean likelihood score that Canadian participants assigned to the anxiety scenarios is significantly less than the likelihood score assigned by Turkish participants (p<0.01), whereas the mean likelihood score assigned that Canadian participants assigned to the assurance scenarios is much higher than the mean likelihood score assigned by Turkish participants (p<0.01). Table 5 below compares Turkish and Canadian participants on the basis of the mean likelihood scores of anxiety and assurance scenarios.

 

 

Table 5: Mean Likelihood Scores Compared

 

	Anxiety (1-5)	Assurance (1-5)
Canada	2.63	3.51
Turkey	3.15	2.57

 

 

Subsequently, the participants were asked to imagine that each of the events indicated in the scenarios were to occur. For each event, they were asked to indicate on a 7 point scale ranging from extremely distressing to extremely comforting, how distressing/comforting they found this outcome. Then, on a 7 point scale ranging from ‘disrupt a lot’ to ‘support a lot’, they were asked to indicate how much the outcome would support or disrupt their way of life.

 

Table 6:

 

	Distressing/Comforting		Disrupt/Support Way of Life
	Anxiety	Assurance	Anxiety	Assurance
Canada	2.08	5.54	2.46	4.43
Turkey	1.51	5.42	1.59	5.29
Difference (*significance)	0.57***	0.12	0.86***	-0.86***

 

 

The results in Table 6 indicate that, as would be expected, participants overall found the negative scenarios included in the anxiety priming to be distressing and disruptive of their way of life if they were to occur, while they found the positive scenarios included in the assurance priming to be comforting and supportive of their way of life if they were to occur. An interesting pattern that emerges from the comparison of Canadian and Turkish responses is that Turkish participants find the positive scenarios in the assurance priming to be significantly more supportive of their way of life (p<0.01) than the Canadian participants, and they find the negative scenarios in the anxiety priming to be significantly more distressing (p<0.01) and disruptive of their way of life (p<0.01) than Canadian participants. Given the previous finding that Turkish participants found the negative scenarios to be more likely, that the Turkish participants found them also more distressing and disruptive accentuates the relative impact of the negative scenarios on the Turkish participants.

[1] Project 746155 funded by Marie Curie Action