INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY and EMOTIONAL REACTIONS

Bahar Rumelili, Koç University

One significant result of the ANXINT project[1] is that international uncertainty generates different emotional reactions in different national/societal contexts.

Below is a summary of the experimental study, which led to this finding.

In Canada, an experiment with 431 full-time psychology (147) and political science (284) students has been conducted at University of British Columbia, Vancouver, during February-April 2018. 415 students completed the study.  In terms of demographic characteristics, 262 students were Canadian-born (out of the 395 who answered the question) and 267 indicated English as either their only or their first language (out of 396 who answered the question). 271 students indicated their gender as female, and 142 as male, while 2 preferred not to respond. On a scale of liberalism (1) to conservatism (10), 79% indicated their political stance within the range of 1-5, indicating a predominantly liberal subject pool.

In Turkey, an experiment with 453 full-time business and international relations students has been conducted at Koç University, Istanbul, during February-April 2019. 431 students completed the study. In terms of demographic characteristics, 409 students were born in Turkey and 420 indicated Turkish as their first language. 287 students indicated their gender as female, and 132 as male, while 9 preferred not to respond. On a scale of liberalism (1) to conservatism (10), 81% indicated their political stance within the range of 1-5, indicating a predominantly liberal subject pool.

In order to prime with anxiety, participants were asked to assess the likelihood of a set of threatening scenarios materializing in the next 25 years. In line with the theoretical assumptions of the project, regarding the association of anxiety with uncertainty and unknowability, participants were asked to assess the likelihood of negative developments rather than being directly exposed to the negative developments themselves. It was assumed that the cognitive exercise of assessing likelihood is going to make the participants exposed to threatening possibilities and the impossibility of ruling out certain threatening possibilities as simply impossible, and thereby elicit anxiety rather than fear. The set of negative scenarios that were used in the Canadian and Turkish experiments are listed in Table 1. As can be seen, while some scenarios were common, others were selected to represent issues relevant to the specificities of the Canadian and Turkish international political context.

 

Table 1: Anxiety Priming Scenarios

 

Assess the likelihood of the following developments occurring within the next 25 years. How likely is it that…
Canada	Turkey
Someone in your family will be killed in a terrorist attack in Canada.	Someone in your family will be killed in a terrorist attack in Turkey.
A deadly global epidemic will spread to Canada.	A deadly global epidemic will spread to Turkey.
The United States will withdraw from the membership of the United Nations.	Army will seize the governance by a coup d’état in Turkey.
Nuclear weapons will be used in a conflict.	Nuclear weapons will be used in a conflict
Canada will enter into a war with Russia over the Arctic.	USA will implement sanctions to Turkey, similar to Iran.
There will be a global financial crisis which will lead to the bankruptcy of a major Canadian bank	There will be a global financial crisis which will lead to the bankruptcy of a major Turkish bank.
The Free Trade Agreement between US, Canada, and Mexico will be scrapped (10)	A curfew will be imposed in some of Istanbul’s areas due to insurrections.
Foreign states will mount a major cyber attack and influence results of Canadian federal elections (11)	Foreign states will mount a major cyber attack to Turkey.
	Some European countries will stop giving visas to Turkish visitors.
	An independent state will be formed in a part of Turkish territory.

 

 

In order to prime with assurance, participants were similarly asked to assess the likelihood of the continuity of a set of positive trends and neutral scenarios in the next 25 years. Rather than developments indicating positive change, the assurance scenarios emphasized continuity because again in line with the theoretical assumptions of the project, positive change can also be anxiety inducing, and generating such an effect would not have been desirable. Instead of subjecting the control group to no priming, this study chose to implement assurance priming in order to follow established experimental design practices in Terror Management Theory and Meaning Maintenance Model. The set of trends of continuity and neutral scenarios, which were used in the Canadian and Turkish experiments are listed in Table 2. As can be seen, while some scenarios were common, others were selected to represent issues relevant to the specificities of the Canadian and Turkish international political contexts.

 

Table 2: Assurance Priming Scenarios

 

Assess the likelihood of the following developments occurring within the next 25 years. How likely is it that…
Canada	Turkey
The average life expectancy in Canada will increase by 3 years.	The average life expectancy in Turkey will increase by 3 years.
The Canadian music landscape will change as more independent labels become popular.	In terms of national income, Turkey will remain among the top 20 countries in the world.
Global efforts will continue to reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty in the world.	Digital economy will spur Turkish employment.
The majority of nations in the world will be governed by free democratic regimes.	Turkish army will further get stronger and remain among the top armies in the world.
The United Nations will remain as the universal international organization that guarantees international security.	Some European countries will lift the obligation to obtain a visa for Turkey.
In terms of average national income, Canada will remain among the top 25 countries in the world.	The majority of nations in the world will be governed by free democratic regimes
Digital economy will spur Canadian employment	Women’s influence in politics and labour force participation will increase.
The rise in global temperatures will be contained within a safe 2 degrees Celsius	The rise in global temperatures will be contained within a safe 2 degrees Celsius.
	Turkey’s foreign-source dependency on energy will decrease.
	Education obtained in Turkey will provide job opportunities abroad.
	The average life expectancy in Turkey will increase by 3 years.
	In terms of average national income, Turkey will remain among the top 20 countries in the world.

 

Before proceeding with the analysis of how the primes affect international political attitudes, both Canadian and Turkish participants were asked to indicate their emotional states on a 5 point PANAS scale. As can be seen in Graph 1, while anxiety priming did not affect Canadian participants’ reported levels of feeling afraid and scared, those participants subjected to assurance priming reported significantly higher levels of feeling ashamed (p< 0.05) and guilty (p<0.01). In the case of Turkish participants, on the other hand, anxiety priming did lead to significantly higher reported levels of feeling afraid (p<0.01) and scared (p<0.01), whereas no significant effect on reported levels of feeling ashamed and guilty were observed.  The reported levels of feeling afraid and scared are similar in the Canadian and Turkish samples when assured, indicating the effect of anxiety priming on Turkish participants, in particular.

 

Graph 1: Anxiety and Assurance Priming and Effects on PANAS scale.

 

 

[1] Project 746155 funded by Marie Curie Action